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H1N1 "Swine Flu" Pandemic Threat in 2009
Although scientists and public health officials have been worried about an H5N1 "bird flu" pandemic for many years (see next section below), the first new influenza virus to emerge in the twenty-first century[8] that shows pandemic potential is a new H1N1 "swine flu"[9] that was recognized by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in mid-April, 2009[10]. "The viruses contain a unique combination of gene segments that have not been reported previously among swine or human influenza viruses in the U.S. or elsewhere."[11]
Although, not surprisingly, this emergent flu is resistant to amantadine and rimantadine (see below), as of late April, 2009, it is susceptible to both Tamiflu and Relenza[12].
The majority of the approximately 500,000 fatalities worldwide during the annual seasonal influenza epidemics occur in old or very young people, or others with weak immune defenses[13]. In contrast, the deaths from new H1N1 "swine flu" in Mexico appear to be occurring in young, otherwise healthy people, although firm data are not yet available. The majority of serious cases, and hospitalizations, in the USA are occurring in younger people. Older people appear to have some immunity since only 1% of cases have occurred in people over 65[14][15]. Indeed, 33% of people over 60 were found to have antibodies against the new H1N1 flu, whereas the percentage in younger people was several-fold less[14][15].
On April 29, 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) raised its pandemic alert to level five on a six point scale, indicating that a pandemic is imminent (www.who.int). The CDC is maintaining frequent updates at cdc.gov/h1n1flu. A preliminary proteopedia-based analysis of the 2009 H1N1 Swine Flu sequence polymorphisms within the context of protein homology models is also available.
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